High Pressure Stock Gave 10Y BO 0 (0)

By now we are familiar with the importance of multi year break outs and ATH break outs. We have played that nicely in Tips and stock was good enough to provide multiple opportunities to trade around the core position. Another such stock is Goldiam which we shared but could not write the post and it…

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Some Green Power For Portfolio 5 (2)

Nobody knows what might happen tomorrow in the market. If anybody has sold you something which predicts what will happen tomorrow then you have been duped. Market being probabilistic game thus nobody being able to predict what might happen next is what makes it interesting. And it is going to remain this way for long…

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Good Stock vs Good Business 5 (1)

Not every good business is a good stock. Not every good stock is a good business. Knowing the difference between the two decides how good CAGR you can generate. Few days ago we put out some polls. First we asked what would be average age of BNP followers – https://twitter.com/BhartiyNiveshak/status/1362026907827494913 50% people went with 35…

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Story Of Three Textile Plays 5 (2)

Every trade, you take or decide to give a pass, is an experiment. After every experiment you gather some data points and make observations based on that. Over the period these observations make you better in finding right and highly rewarding trades at low risk entry point. Today we will be talking about three textile plays and what lessons we can learn from them.

It was Dec 08, 2020 and market was not giving any clean signal but there were certain emerging trends. One of these trend was textile stocks doing good.

We started by discussing the Ambika Cotton to draw some patterns and see if that can be used in other textile stocks to benefit.

We posted this chart for Arvind Fashion back then at 150

Along with below comment –

Look at how it has panned out and correlate it with what we said above –

Next we discussed Indo Count trading at 160 and below chart was posted –

It had stop loss of 147.5

Here is how it looks now –

After hitting stop loss if you did not exit stock gave good feeling for few days since it rallied towards 160 but only to disappoint later and now trading as low as 120s.

Third stock that we discussed has textile in its name although it is more of other business than textile – Century Textile at 390

This was the analysis posted for Century back then –

How are things now for Century Textile –

Stock went very close to our SL and reversed. If you are day trading then you can not have that deep stop loss and as a result you will hit stops very frequently which may even demoralize you to accept the long term value investing dropping your returns from 30% CAGR to 15% CAGR if all goes right with possibility of worse can always happen.

Century Textile is example illustrating what we tweeted today –

This is why we do not have to know exact bottom or top or exact price movement at any specific point in time. All we need is broad direction with ups and downs and we will make good money.

Here is how tracker looks like for these three –

Notice that ICIL hitting our Stop and then exit was best strategy because now stock is well below that level. While other two ideas are doing fine and still developing on upside.

We did not post the analysis of ICIL because it was a simple snake pattern which members are familiar with.

Lesson – Follow the process you have. If it says you are wrong then exit. Do not argue and try to find justification. Before trade starts accept the risk and imagine you are going to lose in this trade and now take the trade. Market is probabilistic game and nobody knows what might happen in next trade but over all if you have got good process with edge and executed well then you will come out as winner. It is not about individual trades as much as about over all how you have done over 3 months or 6 months. Hard for most people to get this mental framework specially those who believe they know better than most and based on their understanding of business of the company they also know what stock price must do. Accept your ignorance. To save you from catastrophe you have the red line of stop loss in every trade that you take. But if you believe you are some superior human who knows what is going on then why would you need that red line of stop loss. Because you already know everything about stock and there is no risk. Result will be enormous pain and big drawdowns in portfolio while delivering sub par returns.

You have to stop fearing the labels that people put on you. If they call you trader or speculator then you should not take that as negative and try to explain why you are not. Let them call you what they like but if it works for you then just do it.

Impressive thesis, high conviction, deep analysis, scuttlebutt, High IQ tweets may sound great but if they are not able to translate into returns at portfolio level then they are clearly of no use.

The only way to judge the performance of any market participant is Portfolio CAGR.

Given a choice what would you like to be – Investor 1 or Investor 2? Tell us in comment section.

Real Estate Play Looking Good 0 (0)

The market is sum of the variants of the perception of institutional investors and individual participants. When something changes the perception about certain theme, sector or industry, you as a market participant are better off looking at it why. If it makes sense you load up on it and if it does not then either…

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Thread Feb 2021 2.0 0 (0)

Recently we tweeted something which although seems only a view on two stock but in reality is showing a shift in economy and market going forward. That was about SBI and DLF – https://twitter.com/BhartiyNiveshak/status/1360129573300539392 In current thread over next 12 days let’s discuss and make things better for our portfolio. Do not forget to clap…

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Thread Feb 2021 1.0 0 (0)

Nobody could have asked for better day in the Market on Budget Day. Since it was mostly a financial rip, you should not fret if your portfolio did not went up by 5% today. Market sets up trajectory, rest you set how far your portfolio will go based on your trades and right time that…

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