Game of Probability 5 (1)

Life is game of probability. This includes where you are currently in career, what education you have, what kind of lifestyle you have. With few changes it could have been vastly different than what it is today.

Probability is what are the chance of something happening.

Many people confuse probability as simply number of favourable outcomes being high means having high probability of success. You have to see individually about those possible outcomes and how likely they are.

You can say if you buy a stock it has two possibility only – either it goes up or it goes down. It is almost impossible that it will remain at the exact same price at what you bought for any meaningful time after the purchase is done. Now does this mean probability of you making profit is 50%? No.

If you put some rules like buying stocks that are trading at All Time High, 52 Week High, Gave Break Out, or are At Support then chance of stock going up after your buy is much more than it going down. By just doing this simple thing you can vastly improve chances of making profits from your trades. How much profit you will make is still not decided by this but in how many trades you will make profit has improved already.

Now add another condition of how long it has been in a range which people call consolidation. Longer a stock has been in consolidation and then makes All Time High, 52 Week High, Gave Break Out, or are At Support then not only chance of it giving you profits becomes higher but the quantum of profits also becomes higher.

The probability that people keep talking about is entirely different from what it actually is. And if you add new conditions and ask them to see new probability then it becomes even harder. Mathematically it is called Bayes Theorem and famous problem on this is Monty Hall problem.

Another thing to understand is just because something has probability of 0.01 then it does not mean it can not happen. By definition, if something has probability greater than 0 then it means it can still happen though likelihood of it happening is quite less. If anything has probability of 0 then it is simply impossible event and it can not happen and if something has probability of 1 then it is simply certain event and this will happen no matter what.

Riding a stock that is showing sign of strength has higher probability to work than a stock that is showing weakness. Always remember, wherever a stock is it is there for a reason. A stock that is at highs can go higher and a stock that is at lows can go lower. And probabilities favour the movement on the same side for bulk of the time.

Getting out of “too high” or “too low” mindset is the first thing you must do to succeed in the market.

Disclaimer: Posts on the platforms of BN are our perspective on the market. These are purely meant for learning purposes. The perspective provided should not be construed as investment advice or solicitation to trade. We may have positions in the stock mentioned. You agree to make no trade relying on the above contained information fully or partly. By using the content, you agree to these T&Cs.

Classic IPO Logic Trades 0 (0)

IPO is like birth of the company in public space. That day decides the kundali of the stock and how it might behave in future. Those levels that it marks on first day become defining characteristics of the stock for foreseeable future and even if in distant future stock comes close to those levels it…

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Daily Dose #StocksToWatch #8 0 (0)

Please note that below shared chart analysis is our way of sharing market pulse using four stocks. If you are taking trade on any of the stocks mentioned ensure that you have looked at things from all the angles and only after assessing the risk you are doing something.

  1. Speciality Restaurants. MCap ₹395Cr. CMP ₹84. Tradeable Float MCap ₹118 Cr 

The company owns and operates many brands including Mainland China, Asia Kitchen, Oh! Calcutta, Sigree, Sweet Bengal, Hoppipola, Haka, Riyasat, Episode One, UDP HAY & BARrish etc. SRL is one of the largest fine-dining restaurant chains in India and is play on unlock the economy theme with no expectation of third wave of covid.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.
  1. Filatex India. MCap ₹2641Cr. CMP ₹118. Tradeable Float MCap ₹590 Cr 

Filatex India is manufacturer of Polyester Chips, Polyester/Nylon/Polypropylene Multi & Mono Filament Yarn and Narrow Fabrics.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.
  1. Bank of Baroda. MCap ₹45560Cr. CMP ₹88. Tradeable Float MCap ₹6150 Cr 

Vijaya and Dena Bank has been merged into Bank of Baroda which has 9,500 branches and 13,400 ATMs operating across the country. After State Bank of India it is second largest Public Sector Bank in India.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.
  1. IndiaMART Intermesh. MCap ₹26964Cr. CMP ₹8806. Tradeable Float MCap ₹3180 Cr 

First and largest B2B digital marketplace of India commanding over 60% market share. Caters to 56 industries and as many as 7.1 Cr products. It is subscription based business model where sellers pay to use the platform and company also holds stake in software platform Vyapar engaged in accounting needs, invoicing and inventory.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.

If you want to learn and be part of exclusive club to discuss things, you can join our Pro membership on 1 Nov 2021. Please note that new subscription opens only on first of each month.

This is to receive timely update about the new posts as and when they are available on website.

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Disclaimer: Posts on the platforms of BN are our perspective on the market. These are purely meant for learning purposes. The perspective provided should not be construed as investment advice or solicitation to trade. You agree to make no trade relying on the above contained information fully or partly. By using the content, you agree to these T&Cs.

Daily Dose #StocksToWatch #7 0 (0)

Please note that below shared chart analysis is our way of sharing market pulse using four stocks. If you are taking trade on any of the stocks mentioned ensure that you have looked at things from all the angles and only after assessing the risk you are doing something.

  1. Page Industries. MCap ₹41453Cr. CMP ₹37154. Tradeable Float MCap ₹4080 Cr 

Page Industries is the exclusive licensee of JOCKEY International Inc. for manufacturing, distribution and marketing of the JOCKEY® brand in India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and the UAE. They are also exclusive licensee of Speedo International Ltd. for the manufacturing, marketing and distribution of the Speedo brand in India.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.
  1. Tata Motors. MCap ₹135239Cr. CMP ₹376. Tradeable Float MCap ₹21640 Cr 

Inke bare me ab kya kahna hai. Auto we talked yesterday in our telegram discussion and today index itself was up by more than 5.5% during the day. You can listen it on YouTube.

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  1. SBI Cards. MCap ₹107264Cr. CMP ₹1139. Tradeable Float MCap ₹5200 Cr 

SBI Cards & Payment Services is engaged in the business of issuing credit cards to consumers in India.

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  1. Suprajit Engineering. MCap ₹4706Cr. CMP ₹341. Tradeable Float MCap ₹1560 Cr 

A leader in mechanical control cables in India holding 65% market share. Watch for details here.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.

If you want to learn and be part of exclusive club to discuss things, you can join our Pro membership on 1 Nov 2021. Please note that new subscription opens only on first of each month.

This is to receive timely update about the new posts as and when they are available on website.

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Disclaimer: Posts on the platforms of BN are our perspective on the market. These are purely meant for learning purposes. The perspective provided should not be construed as investment advice or solicitation to trade. You agree to make no trade relying on the above contained information fully or partly. By using the content, you agree to these T&Cs.

Three Gems From Developing Themes 5 (1)

There are tons of strategies, systems, processes, ways to make money in the market. Question is do you understand the system, how it works and whether it suits you temperamentally. This unfortunately is easier said than done. But you still have to figure yourself out and then adopt a strategy suited to your nature. After…

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Daily Dose #StocksToWatch #6 0 (0)

Please note that below shared chart analysis is our way of sharing market pulse using four stocks. If you are taking trade on any of the stocks mentioned ensure that you have looked at things from all the angles and only after assessing the risk you are doing something.

  1. Radico Khaitan. MCap ₹12675Cr. CMP ₹948. Tradeable Float MCap ₹2760 Cr 

They own IMFL (Indian Made Foreign Liquor) brands such as 8PM, Magic Moments, Morpheus, Rampur, Jaisalmer, Electra, After Dark, Crown, Contessa, Pluton Bay etc. Business is growing, shedding debt and improving return ratios. Earlier covered for Pro at 480-550 with SL of 434 and it made lows of 494 and then rallied.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.
  1. BEML. MCap ₹6231Cr. CMP ₹1494. Tradeable Float MCap ₹1310 Cr 

This is Ministry of Defence, Government of India venture working in areas of Defence & Aerospace, Mining & Construction, Rail & Metro. Earlier shared at 1366.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.
  1. Dishman Carbogen. MCap ₹3902Cr. CMP ₹248. Tradeable Float MCap ₹860 Cr 

A fully integrated CRAMS player working with global pharmaceutical innovators. They have had some tax related raids and you might want to probe more before deciding anything on this one. Earlier shared at 198.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.
  1. Tata Coffee. MCap ₹3976Cr. CMP ₹213. Tradeable Float MCap ₹1480 Cr 

Coffee is looking hot.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.

If you want to learn and be part of exclusive club to discuss things, you can join our Pro membership on 1 Nov 2021. Please note that new subscription opens only on first of each month.

This is to receive timely update about the new posts as and when they are available on website.

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Disclaimer: Posts on the platforms of BN are our perspective on the market. These are purely meant for learning purposes. The perspective provided should not be construed as investment advice or solicitation to trade. You agree to make no trade relying on the above contained information fully or partly. By using the content, you agree to these T&Cs.

Daily Dose #StocksToWatch #5 5 (1)

Please note that below shared chart analysis is our way of sharing market pulse using four stocks. If you are taking trade on any of the stocks mentioned ensure that you have looked at things from all the angles and only after assessing the risk you are doing something.

  1. Gland Pharma. MCap ₹66354Cr. CMP ₹4031. Tradeable Float MCap ₹6260 Cr 

One of the largest and fastest growing injectable-focused companies, with a global footprint across 60 countries, including the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, India and other markets. They operate primarily under a business to business (B2B) model and have an excellent track record in the development, manufacturing and marketing of complex injectables following quality culture.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.
  1. BSE. MCap ₹5689 Cr. CMP ₹1263. Tradeable Float MCap ₹2162 Cr 

Inke bare me kuch btana pade to aap share market me rahne layak nhi hain. Part of DYI stock market/ Financialization of savings theme.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.
  1. Borosil Renewables. MCap ₹4392 Cr. CMP ₹337. Tradeable Float MCap ₹1360 Cr 

Borosil Renewables is in the business of manufacturing of extra clear patterned glass and Low Iron Solar Glass for application in Photovoltaic panels, Flat plate collectors and Green houses. Listen this for more details.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.
  1. Fairchem Organics. MCap ₹2785 Cr. CMP ₹2136. Tradeable Float MCap ₹545 Cr 

They make Dimer Acid from waste procured from Oil Refining Mill which is used in Paint, Printing Ink, Epoxy Hardener, Drlling Chemicals, Moulds etc. They are only manufacturer of Dimer Acid in India and for that building blocks are made from waste. They also process Tocopherol which is used in formulating Natural Vitamin-E.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.

If you want to learn and be part of exclusive club to discuss things, you can join our Pro membership on 1 Nov 2021. Please note that new subscription opens only on first of each month.

This is to receive timely update about the new posts as and when they are available on website.

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Disclaimer: Posts on the platforms of BN are our perspective on the market. These are purely meant for learning purposes. The perspective provided should not be construed as investment advice or solicitation to trade. You agree to make no trade relying on the above contained information fully or partly. By using the content, you agree to these T&Cs.

Daily Dose #StocksToWatch #4 0 (0)

Please note that below shared chart analysis is our way of sharing market pulse using four stocks. If you are taking trade on any of the stocks mentioned ensure that you have looked at things from all the angles and only after assessing the risk you are doing something.

  1. Balrampur Chini. MCap ₹8211 Cr. CMP ₹393. Tradeable Float MCap ₹1790 Cr 

Sugar is about to get sweeter.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.
  1. Deepak Nitrite. MCap ₹35384 Cr. CMP ₹2592. Tradeable Float MCap ₹10285 Cr 

Jis din humare FinTwit k log Nitride, Nitrate aur Nitrite me antar karna smjh jayenge us din ye share rukega. Purana stock hai badhe ja rha 700 se to abhi iska sath pakde hue hain. Website jarur GoDeepak hai lekin secure nahi bnayi. Galat baat hai ye.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.
  1. National Aluminium. MCap ₹19304 Cr. CMP ₹105. Tradeable Float MCap ₹4537 Cr 

Last time we talked about it and it blasted lekin is baar ye Niti Aayog ka hath hai privatization candidate k roop me. Isme journey volatile ho skti hai so use seatbelt properly.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.
  1. Sobha. MCap ₹7531 Cr. CMP ₹793. Tradeable Float MCap ₹528 Cr 

Sobha has been increasing the shobha of many BN Parivaar members portfolio as top real estate play. Again giving low risk entry but it might test patience as long as it is in that triangle. Once out of that it will likely turn into rocket.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.

If you want to learn and be part of exclusive club to discuss things, you can join our Pro membership on 1 Nov 2021. Please note that new subscription opens only on first of each month.

This is to receive timely update about the new posts as and when they are available on website.

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Disclaimer: Posts on the platforms of BN are our perspective on the market. These are purely meant for learning purposes. The perspective provided should not be construed as investment advice or solicitation to trade. We may have positions in the stock mentioned. You agree to make no trade relying on the above contained information fully or partly. By using the content, you agree to these T&Cs.

Be A Stoic 5 (4)

Chapter 2, Shloka 38 of Bhagvad Geeta reads as follow –

सुखदुःखे समे कृत्वा लाभालाभौ जयाजयौ।

ततो युद्धाय युज्यस्व नैवं पापमवाप्स्यसि।।2.38।।

Translation – Look at pleasure and pain, profit and loss, victory and defeat with an equal eye. Be ready for the combat this way and you will not commit any wrong.

First stage of anything worth doing is passion. We look at something and feel passionate enough to do it. Then work hard and discipline ourselves as artist to be as good as we can. Most artists end their pursuit at this point.

Ultimate stage of mastery in any craft involves sole focus on process. Stage where you only focus on ways of doing things makes you ultimate. It is detached from immediate outcomes. If we keep doing good and improve each time then over the period we are bound to get better outcomes.

An average trader makes a good trade and feels good; a great trader makes a great trade and feels nothing.

Disclaimer: Posts on the platforms of BN are our perspective on the market. These are purely meant for learning purposes. The perspective provided should not be construed as investment advice or solicitation to trade. We may have positions in the stock mentioned. You agree to make no trade relying on the above contained information fully or partly. By using the content, you agree to these T&Cs.

Daily Dose #StocksToWatch #3 0 (0)

Please note that below shared chart analysis is our way of sharing market pulse using four stocks. If you are taking trade on any of the stocks mentioned ensure that you have looked at things from all the angles and only after assessing the risk you are doing something.

  1. Kabra Extrusion. MCap ₹825 Cr. CMP ₹259. Tradeable Float MCap ₹280 Cr 

They operate in the business of plastic extrusion machinery. Company is India’s largest manufacturer of Plastic extrusion machines. They are foraying into Li-ion battery packs from Pune facility under the brand name “Battrixx”. It was discussed numerous times including today in telegram, twitter and youtube. Watch here.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.
  1. Jindal Stainless (Hisar). MCap ₹7037 Cr. CMP ₹298. Tradeable Float MCap ₹1190 Cr 

They are manufacturer /producer of stainless steel flat products in austenitic, ferritic, martensitic and duplex grades. Over next few days pain in metals might get over and this chart is precursor to that.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.
  1. Shipping Corporation. MCap ₹5825 Cr. CMP ₹125. Tradeable Float MCap ₹1445 Cr 

The Baltic Dry Index is reported daily by the Baltic Exchange in London. The index provides a benchmark for the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Higher it goes better for stocks that are catering to transportation of goods across the world. Given it is PSU and Air India rumors are already out case for the stock becomes even better. Brief discussion about Shipping here.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.
  1. ICICI Securities. MCap ₹24629 Cr. CMP ₹762. Tradeable Float MCap ₹2960 Cr 

Company is into business of broking (institutional and retail), distribution of financial products, merchant banking and advisory services. Part of DIY yourself stock market and financialization of savings theme from physical assets in India.

Courtesy – TradingView. Click image to embiggen.

If you want to learn and be part of exclusive club to discuss things, you can join our Pro membership on 1 Oct, 2021. Please note that new subscription opens only on first of each month.

This is to receive timely update about the new posts as and when they are available on website.

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Disclaimer: Posts on the platforms of BN are our perspective on the market. These are purely meant for learning purposes. The perspective provided should not be construed as investment advice or solicitation to trade. We may have positions in the stock mentioned. You agree to make no trade relying on the above contained information fully or partly. By using the content, you agree to these T&Cs.

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